I am a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Economics of the Paris Lodron University Salzburg. I obtained my PhD from the Vienna University of Economics and Business in October 2023.
My research interests include macroeconomics, specifically unconventional monetary policy, the housing market and inequality. I apply empirical methods using predominantly granular data such as surveys, firm data, bond data and administrative data.
My research has been published in journals such as the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics and the Review of Income and Wealth. I have held visiting positions at the Bank of England and at LIS/LISER in Luxembourg.
Contact me: philipp.poyntner at plus.ac.at
Research interests
- Applied Econometrics
- Monetary Policy and Theory
- Inequality
- Housing markets
Research
Publications
de Luigi, C., Schuberth, H., Feldkircher, M., & Poyntner, P. (2023) Quantitative Easing and Wealth Inequality: The Asset Price Channel. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12543
Abstract
We assess the impact of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy, specifically of quantitative easing (QE), on the distribution of household wealth in nine euro area countries. For this purpose, we estimate the effects of a QE shock on housing and risky financial asset prices by means of local projections. We then use these estimates to carry out micro-simulations based on data from the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). For the majority of the countries under review, expansionary QE via asset prices leads to net wealth inequality increases when measured using wealth indicators that are sensitive to changes at the tails of the wealth distribution. This finding contrasts with results based on the Gini coefficient which point to an equalizing impact of QE. One-third of the households in our sample holds neither housing nor financial wealth and is thus not directly affected by QE measures through the asset prices channel.
Other versions
as “Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy on real and financial wealth”: WU Department of Economics Working Paper Series (the most recent version is heavily revised)
Hake, M. and Poyntner, P. (2022). Keeping Up With the Novaks? Income Distribution as a Determinant of Household Debt in CESEE. Review of Income and Wealth , 68: S224-S260. https://doi.org/10.1111/roiw.12540
Abstract
This paper constitutes an initial attempt to shed light on the role of income distribution for household debt in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). Using household-level data from the OeNB’s Euro Survey for the period 2008–2018, we address the question whether interpersonal comparisons (“Keeping up with the Novaks”) are associated with the probability of having a loan and planning to take out a loan. Applying multilevel probit modeling to consider the hierarchical structure of the data, our results support the notion that higher income inequality is negatively correlated with the probability of having a loan at the bottom of the distribution, and positively at the top. We show this impact for almost all components of household debt, but evidence is strongest for mortgage and foreign currency loans. Loan plans are associated with income inequality at the very top of the income distribution.
Hake, M., & Poyntner, P. (2019). Household loans in CESEE from a new perspective: the role of income distribution. Focus on European Economic Integration Q2, 75-93.
Working Papers
Poyntner, P., & Reininger, T. (2018). Bail-in and Legacy Assets: Harmonized rules for targeted partial compensation to strengthen the bail-in regime. OeNB Working Paper 224.
Abstract
In the wake of the global financial crisis, several large bank rescues by governments further entrenched bail-out expectations in the wider public. Then, following a problematic ad-hoc bail-in in Cyprus early 2013, EU rules introduced provisions for ‘bail-in’, that is, the administrative power to require write-down or conversion into equity of non-equity claims – a significant regime change to deal with banks failing or likely to fail. This paper focuses on the implications of this regime change for consumer/investor protection, especially for socially more vulnerable households, and on the resulting risk for political acceptance and the achievement of the bail-in objective. Therefore, it reviews these rules and their application in recent cases, focusing on the treatment of retail bond holders. Moreover, it explores the distribution of retail holders of bank bonds across economy-wide income quantiles in the euro area and various euro area countries. We find that neither the share of below-median- income households with bank bonds in the total number of households with bank bonds nor the relative vulnerability to ‘bail-in’ of these households that tend to have higher levels of financial illiterateness are negligible. Recent applications of bail-in-rules, while diverse with respect to legal basis, scope and purpose, have barely gone beyond the write-down and conversion of capital instruments, thus excluding senior bonds. Nevertheless, in all these cases, some sort of compensation scheme for retail investors was deemed necessary and implemented, varying in design, but mostly benefiting almost all retail holders. In two prominent cases there was no effective bail-in of retail holders. In conclusion, following a lesser-known example from Italy, we propose EU harmonized partial compensation rules for socially more vulnerable retail holders of bank debt securities acquired before 2016. They would render implementation of bail-in socially more acceptable, politically more feasible and economically more efficient. During the transition period until household investment behaviour will have fully adjusted to the new world of bail-in, the proposed compensation rules would help avoid effective non-application of bail-in that otherwise results from excluding senior bonds and/or granting excessive compensation.
Book chapters & Policy Publications
Monetary Policy, Housing and Inequality (2024), in LIS Inequality Matters, Issue 29.
Feldkircher, M., Schuberth, H., & Poyntner, P. (2017). Verteilungswirkungen unkonventioneller Geldpolitik im Euroraum, in: Hagemann, Kromphart, Jürgen and Marterbauer, Markus (2017): Keynes, Geld und Finanzen. Schriften der Keynes-Gesellschaft, Band 11.
Poyntner, P. (2016). Beschäftigungseffekte von Arbeitszeitverkürzung. Eine makroökonomische Perspektive, 2016, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 4, 665-684.
Riedel, M., Davoine, T., Poyntner, P., & Titelbach, G. (2015). Optionen zur Deckung des zukünftigen Finanzierungsbedarfes in der Pflege. Study on behalf of the Austrian Ministry of Finance.
Hofer, H., Davoine, T., Hyee, R., Miess, M., Müllbacher, S., & Poyntner, P. (2015). Ex Ante Evaluation der Steuerreform 2015/2016. Wirkungen auf Einkommensverteilung, Arbeitsangebot und makroökonomische Größen. Study on behalf of the Austrian Ministry of Finance.
Work in Progress
Firm-level Consequences of Corporate Quantitative Easing
Public Perceptions of the Linkage between Monetary Policy Decisions and the Housing Market (with Sofie R. Waltl, WU and LISER)
Heat and construction workers’ health (with Anna-Theresa Renner, TU Vienna, and Roman Hoffmann, IIASA)
The role of shadow banks. Conventional versus unconventional monetary policies (with Manuel Gloria and Chiara Punzo, Bank of England).
The international spillovers of corporate bonds purchases (with Marco Garofalo , University of Oxford, Bank of England and CfM)
Teaching
Current:
Data Analysis (Bachelor, PLUS)
Quantitative Methods (Master, PLUS)
European Union Studies (Master, PLUS)
Master Seminar (Master, PLUS)
Past:
Macroeconomics (Bachelor, PLUS)
Applied Econometrics (Bachelor, WU)
Economic Policy (Master, WU)
International Macroeconomics (Bachelor, WU)
Public Economics (Bachelor, U Linz)
Using Python to automatically web-scrape large-scale OCR-scans of historical documents (Workshop at the University of Vienna, Department of Economic History)
Media
Wie Geldpolitik die Immobilienpreise beeinflusst (Presse, 2024)
Ist die EZB ein umgekehrter Robin Hood? (Standard, 2020)
Arbeitszeitverkürzung als Beschäftigungsmotor? (A&W Blog, 2016)
CV
since 2023: Senior Scientist, Paris Lodron University Salzburg
2018-2023: Teaching and Research Associate, Vienna University of Economics and Business
2023: Visiting researcher LIS / LISER ((LIS)2ER visiting fellowship programme)
2023: PhD Intern, Bank of England, Financial Stability Strategy & Projects
2022: Short-Term Consultant, European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research
2021: Short-Term Consultant, World Bank (International Finance Corporation)
2017: Johannes-Kepler-University Linz, Institute for Public Economics, Teaching and Research associate (temporary replacement)
2016-2017: Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), Foreign Research Division, intern
2015-2016: Institute for Advanced Studies, Group “Labour Market and Social Policy”, researcher
2014-2015: Institute for Advanced Studies, Group “Labour Market and Social Policy”, student assistant
2018-2023: PhD Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business
2013-2015: Master Economics, University of Vienna
2009-2013: BA Economics, University of Vienna